Is It Too Late To Buy A Fatbike?

Let’s say that for some god-forsaken reason you absolutely had to cross hundreds of miles of remote Alaskan wilderness, in the middle of winter, under your own power.  What mode of travel would you choose?  I am incredibly biased, but to me the logical answer is “I’d ski.”  After all, skis were invented specifically for this kind of thing.

But now look at these statistics for the Iditarod Invitational over the past four years..

88 people have finished:

51 on bikes
33 on foot
4 on skis

Umm, what?  Huh?  These numbers boggle my mind every time I look at them.   The main factor in these numbers is that a lot more bikers and runners enter the race than skiers.  And while that also confuses me, I’ve come up with some reasons why.

1. Biking and running are WAY more popular than skiing.  Almost everyone knows how to bike and how to run.  These sports can be done in any season, anywhere in the world.  Thus, the racing communities are large.  Cross country skiing, because of weather and technique requirements, is tiny by comparison.
2. Ultra-races are popular within a certain segment of the biking and running race communities.  There are a ton of biking and running ultra races all over the world.  There are very few ski ultras, and most of those only exist because they are combined with biking and running races.
3. Fat bikes have become pretty amazing tools for soft terrain.  I mean, look at this beast.  Watching the Susitna 100 on Saturday, I was amazed at the number of people who own fat bikes.  
4. The trail to McGrath is not all that good for skiing.

The first three reasons don’t worry me.  They have no effect on me as a skier in this race.  The fourth reason, however, is a major concern.  There are a lot of sections that could be tough to cover on skis.  The trail will be narrow, and in some places it might not exist because of new snow, windblown snow, or no snow.  Deep snow presents a problem to all the racers.  No snow is a problem only for the skiers.    I honestly don’t know what I am going to do when I encounter long stretches without snow.   Walk in my ski boots?  Bring a pair of shoes or winter boots just for walking?  I’m not sure.  An extra pair of boots adds a lot of weight to the sled.

I should also say that despite the grim numbers on skiers finishing,  it appears that the success rate for skiers isn’t much lower than for other competitors.  Its just that far fewer skiers enter the race.  Here are the overall numbers for each year:

• 2008 – 45 starters – 28 finishers – 62 %
• 2007 – 31 starters – 16 finishers – 51%
• 2006 – 36 starters – 18 finishers – 50 %
• 2005 – 41 starters – 29 finishers – 70%
• 2004 – 27 starters – 18 finishers – 66%
• 2003 – 33 starters – 16 finishers – 48%
• 2002 – 25 starters – 18 finishers – 72%

(These numbers don’t completely jibe with the first set of numbers I posted, but they are close.  I am not sure where the discrepancy is.)

So the overall success rate is just above 50%.  With so many unknown factors in this race, I think a rookie like myself starts with about a 50/50 shot.    Any mistakes I’ve made with training, gear, or food will drag down that percentage even further.  But who knows.  I am trying not to think about this race in terms of my chances of finishing.  

If my objective was to win this race, maybe I would have chosen to use a bike.  But I am a skier.  And my objective is to explore some beautiful country the best way I know how – on skis.